China and the US are in different economic cycles and China does not need to follow the US in raising interest rates
On June 15, local time, the Federal Reserve announced to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, the single largest increase since 1994. Since the beginning of this year, the rise of global energy and food prices and the resurgence of inflation have become a problem for central banks of all countries. Many central banks have started or accelerated the process of interest rate hikes. In order to curb inflation, the increase in interest rate increases has become its inevitable choice, the market has long expected this.
After the Fed’s move, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points, its fifth increase since December, and the Swiss National Bank started its first increase in seven years. In the background of many central banks raising interest rates, how to adjust China’s monetary policy has become the focus of attention.
The adjustment of monetary policy in the US and Europe is based on the changing economic situation they face. China and the US are in different economic cycles, which determines that China’s monetary policy does not need to follow suit. At present, China’s price level is much lower than the United States and Europe and other major economies. According to the latest price data, CPI growth was flat, PPI downward trend accelerated, and inflation was generally under control. In the second half of this year, China’s CPI will continue to run within a reasonable range and meet the target of around 3% for the year. Although geopolitical conflicts are still disturbing the international energy and food markets, China has sufficient grain supply, coal resources to meet demand, and the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continues to exert force. On the premise of moderate and controllable inflation, China has sufficient monetary policy space and does not need to follow other countries in raising interest rates.
National Development and Reform Commission: detailed and concrete measures to ensure reasonable economic growth in the second quarter
The epidemic situation is improving in many places recently. With the implementation of a package of measures to stabilize the economy, what are the new changes in the economy? We are almost halfway through 2022. What is the focus of our next work? There have been some positive changes in the economy, but there are still many challenges to stabilize the recovery of supply and demand, Meng Wei, spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said on June 16. Going forward, we will further refine and substantiate relevant measures in light of actual conditions to accelerate the release of policy effects and ensure reasonable economic growth in the second quarter.
“Since May, the epidemic situation across the country has shown a downward trend, the normal order of production and life has been quickly restored, and the economic operation has gradually stabilized. The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed marginal positive changes in major economic indicators, and the growth rate of industry and export has picked up significantly.” Meng Wei said. However, Meng wei also pointed out that despite some positive changes in the economy, there are still many challenges to stabilize the recovery of supply and demand.
The policy effect gradually appears in May 70 city commercial housing sales price decline gradually
June 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released may commercial housing sales price changes statistics. Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in May 2022, the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to decline month-on-month, but the decline slowed down, and the number of cities where new commercial housing fell month-on-month decreased. First-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities saw the year-on-year increase in the sales price of commercial housing fall or expand, and the number of cities with year-on-year decline increased.
In May, 43 out of 70 large and medium-sized cities saw a month-on-month drop in new home sales prices, four fewer than the previous month, data showed. In may, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities rose 0.4 percent month-on-month, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. Second-tier cities fell 0.1 percent month-on-month, the same decline as last month; Third-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3 percent, which was 0.3 percentage points narrower than the previous month.
[Steel industry]
In the second half of the steel supply and demand pattern is expected to optimize the destocking situation
Recently, huatai futures researcher at black ShenYongGang told reporters that since April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the clear many times continue crude steel output reduce work throughout the country in 2022, and distributed to the around 2022 crude steel production base of reduce the inspection check work notification, the provincial requirements for different levels of crude steel output reduce work. From the official position, production policy will continue to become one of the important factors affecting crude steel supply this year.
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative output of crude steel from January to April this year was 336.15 million tons, 38.41 million tons less than last year, the average daily crude steel output from January to April was 2.8 million tons, and the daily output was 320,000 tons less than last year.
Shen Yonggang said that this year’s steel consumption is difficult to predict, late stimulus policies continue to increase and get the ground, will also affect the pace of steel consumption. But it can be expected that once the superimposition of national “strong stimulus” policy effect, steel consumption will show a certain improvement. Therefore, under the background of crude steel production reduction, the supply and demand pattern of steel is expected to be optimized in the second half of the year, and the total steel inventory will show a destocking situation, thus supporting steel prices. For raw material end, low profits will still restrict the release of short process crude steel output, and long process crude steel output by the impact of crude steel output reduction policy, it is difficult to maintain high, so raw material end iron ore and double coke consumption will appear sequential decline.
Iron and steel enterprises “go out” is market orientation overseas market is the iron and steel industry
For the implementation of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the yunnan provincial party committee and provincial government, provincial education department about promoting the employment of university graduates work policy decisions, implement good employment “head” project, give full play to the academic leadership of the lead, June 9 in the morning, the party committee and the principal assistant Chen Ye led access wisco group kunming iron and steel co., LTD Wu Yunkun, overseas business director of Kunming Iron and Steel Co., LTD., chairman of Yunnan Yongle Overseas Investment Co., LTD., and Wu Ziliang, general manager assistant attended the symposium. Principals of the School’s Academic Affairs Office, College of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Employment Guidance Center and School of Foreign Languages and Cultures attended the discussion.
Chen Ye introduced the discipline construction, talent training, graduates employment and other aspects of the university. He said, as the largest joint production base of iron and steel in Yunnan Province, There are many cooperation opportunities between Kunming Iron and Steel and the university. He hoped to take this event as an opportunity to comprehensively deepen the cooperation between the university and the enterprise, promote the multi-channel linkage between the university and the enterprise, and realize the situation of multi-pronged and multi-directional drege of employment. The university should give full play to its disciplinary advantages, optimize the talent training mode in an all-round way, and provide more competitive and capable talents for enterprises, so as to promote mutual benefit and common development.
Post time: Jun-20-2022