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Steel price bottom completed stage rise channel open

This week steel prices continued to shock, the initial continued decline, mid-week oversold rebound, but the rise is not clear, continued to reduce positions up, increase the price of drag resistance. But near the weekend, futures firm the current key support level, the formation of a more obvious upward momentum. Spot market although the transaction is not good, but traders are interested in price, currently holding a wait-and-see attitude.

Today, domestic black futures prices open high, spot prices rose. By the close, rebar main contract closed 4575 up 101 points; Hot coil main contract closed 4698, up 82 points; Coking coal main contract closed 2559 up 108 points; Coke main contract closed 3351.5 up 129 points; Iron ore main contract closed at 863.5 up 36.5 points. As of 16 o ‘clock on the 27th, timber, Lange steel net rebar spot price is 4727 yuan, compared with the last trading day up 23 yuan; Hot volume average price of 4812 yuan, compared with the last trading day up 21 yuan. Raw materials, Jingtang port imported PB powder price of 950 yuan, compared with the previous trading day up 25 yuan; Tangshan quasi level metallurgical coke price of 3200 yuan, compared with the last trading day down 200 yuan; Tangshan Qian ‘an leading steel billet factory price of 4,450 yuan, flat compared with the previous trading day.

In terms of specific trend, the main driving force of the price at the beginning of the week was India’s imposition of tariffs on iron ore and other products; New Delhi: In a bid to ease high inflation in The country, the government on May 22 raised export tariffs on iron ore to 45% to 50% for different grades and varieties of iron ore. An export tariff of 15 percent will be imposed on pig iron, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil and other steel and semi-finished products, while the original import tariffs ranging from 2.5 percent to 5 percent for metallurgical coke, coking coal and ferroalloy have also been abolished. Previously, the Indian government has implemented a zero-tariff policy on pellet exports, only imposing a 30% export duty on iron ore with a grade of more than 58%, and zero-tariff policy on iron and steel and semi-finished products such as pig iron and hot-rolled coils. In terms of concrete impact, Although India is one of the major producers and suppliers of steel products in the world, it is also one of the important iron ore producers in the world. But starting in 2021, China imported from India ore has been reduced, affected by the wu war this year, the Ukrainian iron ore exports appear missing, India ore is turning to Europe, South Africa, southeast Asia and other countries, to replace the original powder, the tax from the impact, the attacks are simply as “much cry and little wool. Similarly, the export of steel in the first quarter is optimistic, but in the second quarter, with the recovery of production in various countries, the export advantage in Asia and other places is reduced, so even if India reduces steel exports, the effect of tight supply of steel resources will appear a certain discount. Overall, India’s move is more of a sentiment-driven move than a lasting one. So the market once again returns to the fundamentals of weak reality, shock down.

External factors are complex and volatile, and domestic demand has not started as expected due to the impact of the epidemic. The policy side is also news, intended to stimulate a rapid economic recovery. Judging from the recent executive meeting of The State Council, we will further deploy a package of measures to stabilize the economy, bring it back to the normal track and keep it operating within a reasonable range. According to the requirements, the issuance of new special bonds for 2022 should be basically completed by the end of June and the use of new special bonds should be basically completed by the end of August. As of May 20, 1.65 trillion yuan of special bonds had been issued this year, 45% of the annual quota. According to the issuance plan disclosed by various localities, the issuance of special bonds will be further accelerated in late May and June, and there will be no problem in basically completing the issuance of special bonds in June.

The People’s Bank of China and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held meetings to analyze the monetary and credit situation of major financial institutions and made plans to increase credit supply. The meeting pointed out that new downward pressure on the economy has intensified in the near term due to factors that exceed expectations at home and abroad. The financial system should step up support for the real economy and do its utmost to stabilize the economic fundamentals. We need to use a full range of policy tools to increase growth and stabilize existing stocks and use appropriate credit growth to support high-quality economic development. However, from the current situation, the impact of the epidemic has intensified. In April this year, China’s new RMB loans decreased by 922.4 billion yuan year-on-year, while the new personal housing loans decreased by 402.2 billion yuan year-on-year, showing poor performance and a significant decline in overall consumer demand. The move is mainly aimed at increasing support for real estate credit.

26, the People’s Bank of China continued to make efforts to issue a circular on promoting the establishment of a long-term mechanism for small and micro financial services enterprises to be willing to lend, able to lend and willing to lend. From the point of view of purpose, it is still to increase the supplement of endogenous capital, especially to continue to support the issuance of bonds by small and medium-sized banks and increase the supplement of exogenous capital. It also made detailed instructions on the use of funds by the demand-side, urging the scientific development of the annual inclusive small and micro special credit plan to ensure that the growth rate of inclusive small and micro loans is no lower than that of all loans, and urging national banks to give preference to central and western regions, regions with slow credit growth, and regions and industries severely affected by the epidemic. It is expected that more supporting policies will be launched in the future. However, the focus of attention is on the recovery of the demand side. From the current feedback around the news, demand is still under pressure.

Under the guidance of the central bank, news on Friday, small and medium-sized banks followed suit to lower deposit rates, for “small and micro” for greater credit space. Following the reduction of deposit interest rate by large state-owned banks and most joint-stock banks in the first quarter, more and more small and medium-sized banks have followed suit, and the adjustment range is mostly 5bP-10bp. With the promotion of the new policy deployment of the National Regular Committee, the central bank’s measures to protect small and micro enterprises continue to deepen, small and medium-sized banks as an important institution serving small and micro enterprises in the region, the pace of deposit interest rate reduction is expected to further accelerate, so as to increase the credit support to move more space.

Policy control continues, the absolute support for prices, is the recovery of the demand side. According to the trend of first-tier cities, Beijing is still affected by the epidemic, and Shanghai is gradually lifting the lockdown, which is expected to be completely lifted by early June at the latest. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, companies in Shanghai, Jilin, Liaoning and other regions heavily affected by the epidemic had significantly more days of shutdown in April

Post time: May-30-2022